I still have a hard time believing Hamas was behind it. They had nothing to gain
Netanyahu, on the other hand had plenty to gain. Those concert/festival goers were considered to be amongst those at the time quite vocally protesting the Netanyahu regime's policies, in not unlike the messaging around the upcoming No Kings Day today. They always wanted an excuse to genocide
Another example of giving Netanyahu the benefit of the doubt ...
It’s been two years. A lot of evidence is in. There are still mysteries (how many of their own soldiers did IDF kill, either by mistake or to stop them from falling into Hamas hands?), but no mystery that big.
Nothing to gain? The point of a "terrorist" is to strike terror in the heart of your opponent/opressor. They succeeded wildly at that, by most accounts far more than they had supposedly planned. The bizarre non-response by the IDF is the black hole at the heart of all of this. Maybe it was deliberate, maybe they siezed an opportunity, either way Bibi went for genocide as the answer to all his problems.
My own point is always that they meant to disrupt the Doha process from which they had been excluded while the PA was now participating. If so, they certainly succeeded.
What do you suppose are the odds that, when the plan falls apart, the official MAGA analysis is that it got sabotaged by the Nobel committee picking that DEI-hire instead of Trump for the Peace Prize?
Thanks for the Baskin references. Bibi clearly is in (more than) thrall to the blessed Queens Man. Remains to be seen how much pelf exchanges hands as a result, but I'd be happy to get the cement-recycling contract, long as there's a parallel policy prohibiting building anything with new cement til all the old is reused.
Basing an understanding of anything on what Trump says about it has a chequered history, at best. And your confusion about what that plan/agreement actually says/means makes me wonder how many people with real diplomatic experience were involved in writing it. I've seen assertions that this plan is a pastiche of earlier plans, there have been so, so many.
Why now? No one really knows. "Trump demands and Netenyahu obeys" is as plausible as "Bibi accomplished his goals well enough to agree to a pause" which is all this is, so far. What comes next is what I call the boring implementation details, or as The Mickey Mouse Club called Wednesday, Anything Can Happen Day. After agreement, enforcement is the hardest part, along with what exactly gets enforced. Like GWB's Excellent Adventure, nee Operation Enduring Freedom, I can see 1 or 2 ways this can work, and uncountable ways it can all go pear-shaped, at least for the Palestinians.
It would be suprising that a failson was not involved in hustling Arab money in some fashion. The name alone gets a meeting, just like Hunter Biden. And Trump has explained many times he sees himself as the CEO of America. He defines goals and assigns them to his E-staff to implement. He's most comfortable with fellow salesmen like Witkoff and Ludnick, so he gives them tasks they are wildly unsuited for, but because he trusts them it doesn't matter to him so it doesn't matter to the Reoublican party.
I still have a hard time believing Hamas was behind it. They had nothing to gain
Netanyahu, on the other hand had plenty to gain. Those concert/festival goers were considered to be amongst those at the time quite vocally protesting the Netanyahu regime's policies, in not unlike the messaging around the upcoming No Kings Day today. They always wanted an excuse to genocide
Another example of giving Netanyahu the benefit of the doubt ...
It’s been two years. A lot of evidence is in. There are still mysteries (how many of their own soldiers did IDF kill, either by mistake or to stop them from falling into Hamas hands?), but no mystery that big.
Nothing to gain? The point of a "terrorist" is to strike terror in the heart of your opponent/opressor. They succeeded wildly at that, by most accounts far more than they had supposedly planned. The bizarre non-response by the IDF is the black hole at the heart of all of this. Maybe it was deliberate, maybe they siezed an opportunity, either way Bibi went for genocide as the answer to all his problems.
My own point is always that they meant to disrupt the Doha process from which they had been excluded while the PA was now participating. If so, they certainly succeeded.
Totally agree.
Maybe IDF has been resting on its laurels, coasting on its reputation while getting taken over by failsons?
The thinking-out-loud I have seen basically blames Bibi somehow, but I don't really follow the argument.
There's a good case both Netanyahu and intelligence community thought they had bought off Hamas by funneling them the Qatari funds. Their attention was focused on Hezbollah (and obsession with Iran). This assessment is more complex, and very instructive: https://ctc.westpoint.edu/the-october-7-attack-an-assessment-of-the-intelligence-failings/
What do you suppose are the odds that, when the plan falls apart, the official MAGA analysis is that it got sabotaged by the Nobel committee picking that DEI-hire instead of Trump for the Peace Prize?
Thanks for the Baskin references. Bibi clearly is in (more than) thrall to the blessed Queens Man. Remains to be seen how much pelf exchanges hands as a result, but I'd be happy to get the cement-recycling contract, long as there's a parallel policy prohibiting building anything with new cement til all the old is reused.
Basing an understanding of anything on what Trump says about it has a chequered history, at best. And your confusion about what that plan/agreement actually says/means makes me wonder how many people with real diplomatic experience were involved in writing it. I've seen assertions that this plan is a pastiche of earlier plans, there have been so, so many.
Why now? No one really knows. "Trump demands and Netenyahu obeys" is as plausible as "Bibi accomplished his goals well enough to agree to a pause" which is all this is, so far. What comes next is what I call the boring implementation details, or as The Mickey Mouse Club called Wednesday, Anything Can Happen Day. After agreement, enforcement is the hardest part, along with what exactly gets enforced. Like GWB's Excellent Adventure, nee Operation Enduring Freedom, I can see 1 or 2 ways this can work, and uncountable ways it can all go pear-shaped, at least for the Palestinians.
"assertions that this plan is a pastiche of earlier plans, there have been so, so many"--that's what I meant to suggest, that it's cobbled out of Biden administration drafts. There's no reason to suppose Trump knows anything at all about the plan other than that he deserves the prize. Witkoff is another matter--he's not a foreign policy expert, but he has been involved in negotiations and he and his son have important financial interests at stake, espcially in Qatar: see this gift article from Haaretz https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2025-09-27/ty-article/report-witkoffs-son-attempts-to-raise-billions-from-israel-hamas-mediator-qatar/00000199-8a12-daea-adff-bff3c9e70000?gift=7e69f3245d5d44888b6e876caf563ec6
It would be suprising that a failson was not involved in hustling Arab money in some fashion. The name alone gets a meeting, just like Hunter Biden. And Trump has explained many times he sees himself as the CEO of America. He defines goals and assigns them to his E-staff to implement. He's most comfortable with fellow salesmen like Witkoff and Ludnick, so he gives them tasks they are wildly unsuited for, but because he trusts them it doesn't matter to him so it doesn't matter to the Reoublican party.