Yours is a much more nuanced and thoughful version of my dumb take of "I believe polls are accurate, but I do not believe they understand what they are measuring". And the Deciders poll is a really good example of that. Using the hammer of a poll to force the square peg of the uneducated and disconnected voter into the round hole of "pick one" has to end up with a lot of noise in the sample. Some of these people's opinions are nothing but noise, since they have no understanding of what they are being offered. Anyone who sees RFK III as a reasonable choice to accomplish anything has no idea of what they are doing. Attempting to quantify this group using the existing polling tools is going to be pointless at best, and more likely misleading, since they will have numbers and stuff to point to as "scientific".
I'm glad to read this analysis, because this morning these polls filled me with dread. You have interpreted their results better than the Post did -- my takeaway then was the hands-thrown-up cry of Who ARE these people? Which I have been doing a lot of, the past seven years, but it was particularly emphatic today.
I am still undecided as to whether to watch tonight's debate. Or at least pretending to be undecided. I know I will watch so that I am grounded against every shocking interpretation of it for the next five months. (Let me guess, Biden looked too old to win? Trump did better than expected? Clearly then we have a real horse race.)
that might not be a bad place to look for Trump voters.
Polls are dogshit. Polls this far out are runny dog shit. When people actually vote they don't seem to like Republicans very much. (I think that's because they're obviously assholes. Republicans, not voters) Joe seems to have risen to every challenge, usually prefaced with oh my god hair on fire Oh Jesus we're all going to die ruminations. This doesn't seem to be any different.
This seems pretty simple to me. People believe Trump wants to be a dictator in the ancient Roman sense, that is, someone who assumes emergency power to save the Republic. So, he can "protect democracy" by "draining the swamp" or whatever. This is regardless of the fact that he's already been president before and only increased systemic dysfunction with his narcissistic methods.
Yours is a much more nuanced and thoughful version of my dumb take of "I believe polls are accurate, but I do not believe they understand what they are measuring". And the Deciders poll is a really good example of that. Using the hammer of a poll to force the square peg of the uneducated and disconnected voter into the round hole of "pick one" has to end up with a lot of noise in the sample. Some of these people's opinions are nothing but noise, since they have no understanding of what they are being offered. Anyone who sees RFK III as a reasonable choice to accomplish anything has no idea of what they are doing. Attempting to quantify this group using the existing polling tools is going to be pointless at best, and more likely misleading, since they will have numbers and stuff to point to as "scientific".
I'm glad to read this analysis, because this morning these polls filled me with dread. You have interpreted their results better than the Post did -- my takeaway then was the hands-thrown-up cry of Who ARE these people? Which I have been doing a lot of, the past seven years, but it was particularly emphatic today.
I am still undecided as to whether to watch tonight's debate. Or at least pretending to be undecided. I know I will watch so that I am grounded against every shocking interpretation of it for the next five months. (Let me guess, Biden looked too old to win? Trump did better than expected? Clearly then we have a real horse race.)
Let's poll the weak minded.! Though,
that might not be a bad place to look for Trump voters.
Polls are dogshit. Polls this far out are runny dog shit. When people actually vote they don't seem to like Republicans very much. (I think that's because they're obviously assholes. Republicans, not voters) Joe seems to have risen to every challenge, usually prefaced with oh my god hair on fire Oh Jesus we're all going to die ruminations. This doesn't seem to be any different.
This seems pretty simple to me. People believe Trump wants to be a dictator in the ancient Roman sense, that is, someone who assumes emergency power to save the Republic. So, he can "protect democracy" by "draining the swamp" or whatever. This is regardless of the fact that he's already been president before and only increased systemic dysfunction with his narcissistic methods.