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Ellis Weiner's avatar

I'm discovering that it's my mission, or obsession, to add whenever someone mentions Trump as a "deal-maker," this: Trump's ability to make deals--his willingness to agree to them--is in part contingent on the fact that he is perfectly willing to abrogate, ignore, or violate them if it suits his purpose. It's the same as when he cheats at golf, and then declares he's "won." The idea that a six-time bankrupt is an expert negotiator is laughable, although of course it's not funny.

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ssdd's avatar

Excellent breakdown. I can’t really disagree with anything, especially that Tubby & Co. knew little or nothing before the first Israeli strikes went out. I will however suggest one further item for consideration as to why Bibi pulled the trigger: Ukraine’s Operation Spiderweb. Ukraine pulled that off by smuggling drones into Russia and pre-positioning them near military targets for a surprise attack, which went off on the first of June. As we know it was a spectacular success and overnight every military in the world was asking themselves if they were vulnerable to such attacks and how could they counter this new threat?

And what shouLd come out after the first day of strikes on Iran? That some of Iran’s air defenses and missiles had been taken out by (wait for it) drones that had been smuggled into Iran and pre-positioned near military targets for a surprise attack.

If I’m the Israeli in charge of that particular covert op on June 1 when Ukraine launches Spiderweb, I’m definitely hitting the panic button. The chances that Iranian security will be on the lookout of tactics like this just shot through the proverbial roof, and the odds the whole op gets blown go way up. So now there’s “use it or lose it” pressure to part of the attack plan as well. I have to think that played into Bibi launching such a risky gambit.

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Yastreblyansky's avatar

That’s very convincing

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Bern's avatar

Is there a Nobel prize specifically for fiction?

Thing is, he knew it was happening. The statements he made that afternoon were obvious setup for the first attacks. Was the day everyone was gutpunched by the Padilla story – my wife was banging on about it. I told her that Padilla was old news and small change soon's I heard Trump's warmongerism, and sure enough that evening...

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