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Nov 27, 2023Liked by Yastreblyansky

More like they can't listen to Biden. Both Netanyahu and Hamas need a state of crisis to justify their existence, civilians are regrettable collateral damage. And the Israeli bluster about "destroying" Hamas is bullshit. They mean "wipe out the troops" but that's not as orgasmic a phrase, and would lead some people to ask "then what?". The leadership, funding, and eager cannon fodder are all still in place.

Once again, Biden as a guy who's been around the block has maneuvered everyone into the least-bad option, which of course he is condemned for because people are stupid. Can anyone recommend an overview of the Abrahamic Accords? The liberal blogs I follow all sneer at it, but I have no idea what's in it.

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For "Abraham Accords" (Biden administration would like us to stop calling them that), just found this https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/09/winners-losers/616364/ by Jeffrey Goldberg, who liberal blogs (including me) love to hate but he's a good and clear writer and this piece is moderately funny.

It's too admiring of Kushner, though. And it doesn't have any vision of what Biden was able to do with the stuff, which I guess nobody could have predicted (I certainly couldn't). For that you're on your own though the Wikipedia outline https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abraham_Accords is truthful. Now I'm getting into this technical FP stuff maybe I'll write something.

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Nov 27, 2023Liked by Yastreblyansky

It has occurred to me recently that the Israeli government, too, makes liberal use of its own citizens as “human shields,” and not only in the form of civilian settlements in provocative locales throughout the West Bank. Even on the Israeli side of the armistice lines, numerous moshavim and kibbutzim lie immediately adjacent to the borders of what Israel itself deems hostile enemy territory. Predictably, several next to Gaza were prime targets of the October 7 massacres.

Though I’d prefer to attribute these dubious territorial choices, decades and decades in the making, to mere incompetence, hubris, and inertia, in retrospect one can’t help but feel as though a trap was laid.

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Nov 27, 2023·edited Nov 27, 2023Author

The Gaza border wasn't adequately guarded, and it clearly could have been. Does the ideological character of those particular kibbutzim as well as the rave festival—a bunch of hippies presenting a challenge to the stern corporatist nationalism of the power structure in their different ways—have anything to do with that? Whereas on the West Bank the army is always there for every incident. Would fit equally well whether it was incompetence or a trap, really.

Link on the October 7 IDF and intelligence failures (posting it here as a bookmark to myself): https://www.timesofisrael.com/years-of-subterfuge-high-tech-barrier-paralyzed-how-hamas-busted-israels-defenses/

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Nov 28, 2023Liked by Yastreblyansky

I wish I remember where, but it was within days after the 7th, I came upon a unique and good piece of writing by a member of a kibbutz who survived in a safe room. Some of their neighbours didn't. As I remember it, they described their way of life, the happiness they shared there with their friends and family, the gardening, they did honour to who they had been, as I recall they wrote sadly, but did not focus on carnage, they spoke of the safe rooms and the times that the used them during false alarms, and how careful everyone in the area was, and how vigilant, how that was part of the life. They also spoke clearly about the failure of the guarding in the most simple and damning terms. That the entire experiment of their lives and of those around them was predicated upon an agreement with the government to do this one thing of watching the border so that a horror like this would not happen. That if the government had a single job to do, that was it.

It felt like to call it a scandal would be a mockery. That everyone from the top on down should lower their gaze and resign as soon as someone could fill their place. So of course they decided they needed to do shock and awe fireworks instead.

But much of your piece is a happy one, there's relief in knowing of the heavy hitting diplomacy. Im praying that after these days of ceasefire, and as some fire victims get morphine, and so on, it will just be too obscene for them to start bombing again because some glitch in the negotiations isn't moving correctly. The other prayer is that some insanely angry fool doesn't open fire or lob a grenade and give them an excuse.

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Your statement about the Gaza Envelope villages is ridiculous. First thing, that is Israeli land since 1949, a consequence of the war initiated by Palestinians and Arab armies with the goal of a genocide and ethnic cleansing all Jews from Israel. The goals of the Palestinians back then were the same as the goals of Hamas now. Their ‘catastrophe’ is mainly that they didn’t succeed in their genocidal goal. Israel can settle anywhere in its borders, especially the 1949 ones, and Palestinians have no right to attack civilians. What gross Leftist apologia for a massacre.

Second, “a trap was laid” - are you for real? Do Palestinians have no autonomy? They don’t know right from wrong? They don’t know legitimate resistance from crimes against humanity? They were ‘trapped’ into raping women in front of their children, executing parents, setting families on fire, cutting off breasts of rape victims and disemboweling them, hacking a Thai worker’s head off while he’s alive, setting houses on fire to drive people out of shelters, abducting civilians? Does anyone in the world other than Palestinian Islamists do these things? They were ‘trapped’ into it by the colonial violation of peaceful socialist villages across the border from the land they got fully in 2005, and instead of part one of an independent Palestine they turned it into Iran’s missile base? How utterly idiotic. You need to have your head checked.

https://open.substack.com/pub/theliberalpatriot/p/the-return-of-the-indecent-left?r=1mebvk&utm_medium=ios&utm_campaign=post

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Obviously that's not my expression. (I'd be more likely to say Hamas "trapped" Israel into a response so disproportionate that it's made people forget how terrible the original attack was.)

Personally I don't think the truly horrifying and disgusting behavior of some attackers was part of the Qassam plan (and never have thought so since my first post on October 10). I think they went crazy when the expected IDF troops didn't materialize. I don't excuse it, it's totally terrible, but the border still should have been guarded.

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It only made some very specific people forget the original attack. Leftists didn't forget, because they always celebrated Palestinian terrorism, and they are exhilarated about the scale of this new success at killing Jews in awful ways. They only deny, obfustcate, whatabout, and excuse as part of intentional propaganda peddling at "normies".

Progressives have been struggling with the cognitive dissonance of their brains continuing with the momentum of trained by pro-Palestinian propaganda, and reality. So they choose to ignore reality in many cases. It's just easier to do what you love and where trained to do, never mention October 7th, never mention Hamas by name, talk as if this is "Israel vs. Palestinian civilians" and not a war with Hamas.

No shit the border should have been guarded more. The level of trust in Iranian proxies should always be zero, both Hezbollah in Lebanon, which hilariously progressives forget to mention also has been launching attacks into Israel since October 7th (doesn't fit the narrative, ssssshhhh don't say anything!), and Gaza, and the West Bank. If there's a Palestinian state that place needs to be demilitarized. No people on earth have demonstrated less trust in being allowed a military than the Palestinians.

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Jan 8Liked by Yastreblyansky

Just saw this post and now seems hopelessly optimistic

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I know. But see this terrific piece from this week by Nathan Newman https://nathannewman.substack.com/p/the-case-for-biden-on-gaza

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Nov 29, 2023·edited Nov 29, 2023

"Attempted murder, shootings, bombings: Most freed Palestinians were held for attacks

Violent crimes, including rock throwing, cited by Prison Service in cases of 64 of 117 Palestinian prisoners released in first three days of hostage deal"

https://www.timesofisrael.com/attempted-murder-shootings-bombings-most-freed-palestinians-were-held-for-attacks/

Regarding "14,000 Palestinians killed" those numbers are likely inflated in the same way the Al Ahli hospital explosion was inflated till it was obvious Palestinians caused it. It obviously includes thousands of Palestinian terrorists killed by Israel and Palestinian civilians killed by rockets misfired by Palestinian terrorists.

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Nov 29, 2023·edited Nov 29, 2023Author

Of the 150 prisoners freed, 98 were never charged with anything, but were held in "administrative detention" https://www.middleeasteye.net/live-blog/live-blog-update/98-150-freed-palestinians-were-never-charged-says-report

Your Times of Israel report was based on earlier information from IPS and IDF ("The IPS did not release compiled details on conviction status alongside the offense allegations. The master list of 300 potential prisoners to be released includes people who have been convicted by a court, as well as people being held without charges or trial. Some of the latter group may be part of the controversial Israeli practice of administrative detention") was based on earlier information that failed to distinguish between allegations and chargeable crimes. The dishonesty of Israeli police in making such allegations in West Bank arrests has been well known for decades https://www.btselem.org/publications/summaries/201012_caution_children_ahead

It's certainly to be hoped that the 14,000 number will shrink in the course of time, as the 1,400 number for the original October 7 victims of the Hamas attack has shrunk to 1,200. Fog of war and truth is the first casualty of war and all that. But as I've said before many international organizations regard these numbers as pretty reliable.

it's not at all obvious to me that IDF has managed to kill thousands of terrorists--I don't think they themselves have any idea whether they have or not. I'll get back to that in another response. IDF calculated on November 15 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y8pJAWQuOrc that 12% of Palestinian rockets misfired for a total of 1000 rockets, that adds up to a few hundred casualties (not all deaths) at most.

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Nov 29, 2023·edited Nov 29, 2023

"The dishonesty of Israeli policing" - you are funny. Yes, policing in the US and elsewhere is fantastic, Israel is especially baddest in all ways. You do know that at least a third, then, did stab people, throw rocks at moving cars, throw molotov cocktails, all things that do land a juvenile in jail in every country in the world, right? Poor misunderstood Pals of the Left. Don't quote B'tselem at me - they're about as honest as HRW and Amnesty International after Qatari money bought those organizations, a quote tool for "Israel Bad" Leftists.

Let me help you with math, since it's a weak point of the Left. First, 1200 were massacred, then 240 were abducted. Both are war crimes, so add the two. It doesn't matter if the abducted was a body, which Hamas loves to do, and has recorded on video, or died on the way, or died in the tunnels - it's all on Hamas. It's not a fog of war problem, it has literal proof in videos they shot, in their statements, in bodies found along the way while the IDF was working on the outskirts, and it is found in pits near Shifa hospital.

Next, of 3000 that invaded on October 7th, over a thousand bodies of Palestinian death squad members and assorted pogrom rabble lies on the Israeli side of the border. So in Gaza it's somehow supposed to be 0 or a few hundred after this level of fighting, for this many days. That's some fascinating logic.

Only disingenuous fools and anti Zionist assholes (talking about the journalists and substack writers you follow) "regard these numbers as pretty reliable" when talking about Hamas-run "ministry of health". Al Ahli hospital explosion number inflation (while Israel was accused) and deflation (when it became obvious Palestinians did it) is a clear example for why anyone not married to pro-Palestinian propaganda should mistrust the Hamas number, of why the statement about the veracity of these numbers is another one in the never ending stream of pro-Palestinian propaganda lies. If the Al Ahli event was 491 killed (shrill anti Israel high-end) or 100 killed (low end), how is it "a few hundred casualties at most" when nearly 10,000 rockets (you're off by a factor of 10) have been shot since October 7th, with that misfire rate?

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I don't go by which side gives the numbers, I go by the ones that come out later. Al Ahli, where there was an unusual concentration of people outdoors and unprotected, is now estimated as 100-300. Most misfired rockets land no place and hurt nobody, just as in Israel.

No, the US is terrible, I was out there protesting our police brutality in the summer of 2020. You can't whatabout me.

You can call everybody who disagrees with you fools and assholes all you want, but the number is getting bigger and bigger, even in Israel. Your views are locked in the past while the rest of the world tries to live in the present. It's clear to more and more people that the cease-fire and hostage exchange is the first move that has made sense, not just morally but also strategically. I personally despise Qatar (first time I ever refused to watch a World Cup) but I give Biden the credit for knowing how to use them.

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Nov 29, 2023·edited Nov 29, 2023Liked by Yastreblyansky

The south of Gaza, from where the only rocket attacks (with a higher rate of misfire now) are coming from now is also packed. Expect plenty more Palestinian deaths from those.

Agreed on police brutality (I don't like Israeli policing myself, but ya know - they're also less terrible than many others), agreed on Qatar, agreed on Biden being fantastic on foreign policy - better than Obama, and obviously better than Trump, but a trained monkey would be.

The pauses for hostage exchanges are something I completely agree with, as does the majority of Israel. Redeeming hostages is a long tradition for Jews and a mitzvah because Christians and Muslims have made such a lucrative business of abducting Jews historically. The reason there's any hostage exchange is thanks to President Biden's diplomatic efforts and his military support for Israel - without the ground invasion Hamas would torture Israelis psychologically by holding these hostages for years, as it has done before with live and dead Israelis many times. Military pressure works. This war continues when Hamas runs out of hostages to hand over. Progressives may have erased October 7th from their brains to ease resolve their pro-Palestinian cognitive dissonance, but Hamas is still very real, and needs to have all its terrorist infrastructure ripped up, and as many of its scum fighters killed or jailed as possible.

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“It’s become clear that the IDF had no idea which tunnels the Hamas leadership was hiding out in” - so what exactly? You’re suggesting Israel doesn’t have other reasons to identify every tunnel pier and blow it up? Progressives have spent decades ignoring the genocide of Israelis Hamas has openly been promising, gaslighting everyone to ignore decades of Hamas bombings to stop any peace process, despite snatching Gaza, the first installment of the Palestinian state, and turning it into a missile base and a jail for Palestinian civilians, while they freely entered and exited the strip via Egypt to Iran and other locations. Those tunnels hold weapons used in the massacre, and for future massacres promised by Hamas. They holds terrorists who carried out the massacres and who will carry out others if progressives get their ‘defend Hamas ceasefire’. Those tunnels hold rockets and machinery to build more rockets, and what do you know? from thousands of rockets a day to low tens of rockets a day, all from southern Gaza, not Gaza city. Apparently the ground operation is far more effective at rooting out terrorist infrastructure, with less civilians risked and more Hamas deservedly killed.

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Nov 29, 2023·edited Nov 29, 2023Author

"So what exactly?"

So they haven't been following their own targeting rules in the air strikes (the rules for protecting civilians are very good on paper). They're supposed to be able to offer a strategic justification for each strike, but they don't (the public account of the destruction in Jalabiya and at Al-Shifa hospital, videos and all, would have been laughable if the killing wasn't so terrible).

The bombing wasn't even mostly targeting tunnels but residential apartment blocks, and it's killed many thousands of innocent civilians while the fighters hide safely in their tunnels. If IDF was managing to kill Qasam soldiers and destroy their infrastructure they'd be putting out some data (they do announce every time they kill an officer), but they aren't. It's not just me and a bunch of so-called "leftists" saying this any more. It's Antony Blinken https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/10/politics/antony-blinken-israel-gaza/index.html

And this https://abcnews.go.com/International/us-warns-israel-fight-targeted-gaza-officials/story?id=105217371

"The U.S. is warning Israel to fight in a more targeted way once the pause ends in order to avoid displacing more Palestinians and worsening the humanitarian crisis, senior administration officials say.

"If the sort of displacement that happened in northern Gaza happens in the south -- where Israeli forces are now on the ground -- it would cause a crisis beyond the ability of any humanitarian support network, one official said on a call with multiple officials and reporters Monday evening, noting it would be 'beyond disruptive'.... with mounting criticism over the unfolding humanitarian crisis in Gaza under Israel's offensive, the Biden administration has been steadily increasing its warnings to Israeli officials about retraining their military operations, and the latest statements from U.S. officials mark some of the most forceful warnings yet."

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When those apartments have military equipment stashed in them (if you ever watched the videos quite a few had secondary explosions), communications, HQs, or actively had snipers, anti-tank units, and small arms fire coming out of them, then they definitely are a legitimate target. There are videos of all these things, you just choose to be married to a narrative.

No army in the universe shows information of every incident online for Yastreblyansky to confirm, so don't expect a special burden on the IDF. The IDF does collect this information as preparation for the legal harassment from UN bodies that follows, so I'm personally not worried about it existing. Like I mentioned, if you actually watched videos that got posted of airstrikes, you'd see plenty of Hamas terrorists taken out above ground.

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