"[Biden] has declared his aims, consistently, for the past five months" -- true enough. He has done so, as one normally does, through actions, not words. (There have been words aplenty, but when words contradict actions, we go with the actions.) He has refused to use his executive power to stop, or even slightly condition, aid or military transfers to Israel, and failed to provide political cover for legislators to do so in his place. Biden's intention is clearly to protect Israel's capability for slaughter, or whatever else Israel may decide to do (my conservative bet: more slaughter). What he says out loud may be dismissed. It's what he does that counts.
At the end of today's post I talk about how Biden began the process of stopping-or-conditioning military transfers to Israel on February 8; I've added a paragraph to make it clearer.
Its weird to me that complaints about Biden's actions focus so much on American complicity in Netenyahu's actions, rather then those actions. The question of what happens after that aid and military transfer stops doesn't exist, only that America is no longer complicit. Do things get better in Gaza? Does it force Israel to start thinking about what happens after they "destroy Hamas" (a piece of bullshit that rivals Trump's best work)? Who knows?
I believe I saw a headline on Friday saying that the Netanyahu government is now admitting they probably won't eradicate Hamas, which is probably why they're turning to Lebanon/Hezbollah.
Gotta set expectations. They were never gonna "eradicate Hamas" (I always quote Bibi's words since they were bullshit when he said it) without eradicating either the leadership and funding that enabled the cannon fodder on the ground, or eradicating Gaza itself. Either one is probably out of their reach, so they are just kicking the bloody can down the road,
What Israel has achieved politically, by killing 32,000 people, mostly women and children, destroying practically all of the Strip's infrastructure and medical care, and subjecting the entire population to starvation, is to turn that around completely: a couple of weeks ago, another poll was conducted:
"According to the poll, only seven percent of Gazans blamed Hamas for their suffering. Seventy-one percent of all Palestinians supported Hamas’s decision to attack Israel on October 7 — up 14 points among Gazans and down 11 points among West Bank Palestinians compared to three months ago. Fifty-nine percent of all Palestinians thought Hamas should rule Gaza, and 70 percent were satisfied with the role Hamas has played during the war. https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2024/03/22/poll-hamas-remains-popular-among-palestinians/
Netanyahu and IDF have made Hamas, five months ago a despised theocratic oppressor, into a genuinely popular political force.
"Do things get better in Gaza?" Indeed they might well get worse. I think Biden and Obama had to deal with questions like that over Saudi Arabia's war on Yemen, and concluded, rightly or wrongly, that being in the loop gave them some leverage for trying to protect civilians. Things certainly did become worse in Yemen after Trump became president. (He didn't stop arms deliveries though, he just took the brakes off altogether.)
The important question there is "Do things get better in Gaza." The answer is uncontroversially yes. Less slaughter > more slaughter, I think we can agree. Let's get that done and then move on to the rest of it.
I'd like to see the chain of reasoning that starts with "Biden ends military aid support to Israel" and ends with "less slaughter". I suspect there are a few assumptions in there that may not pan out. I completely agree with the abhorrence with being complicit in Bibi's Big Adventure, but I don't see the path between your start and end, and I have my own assumptions that lead to Israel saying "fuck it, let's do it live" and pulling out all the stops to a final solution to their Palestinian problem, to coin a phrase. Maybe I'm as wrong as I think you are, and they're not that dumb and Netenyahu's not that desperate.
Re: the Times:
Plus ça worse, plus c'est the same damn worse.
"[Biden] has declared his aims, consistently, for the past five months" -- true enough. He has done so, as one normally does, through actions, not words. (There have been words aplenty, but when words contradict actions, we go with the actions.) He has refused to use his executive power to stop, or even slightly condition, aid or military transfers to Israel, and failed to provide political cover for legislators to do so in his place. Biden's intention is clearly to protect Israel's capability for slaughter, or whatever else Israel may decide to do (my conservative bet: more slaughter). What he says out loud may be dismissed. It's what he does that counts.
Ya there's a lot of confusion about the words/actions dichotomy, which I've been writing quite a bit about lately:
"it's something people often make a mistake about when they're observing Biden: so many times in the course of the Gaza war they've complained that words are not enough, actions are needed, when words are what they're really asking for (the oratorical call for a ceasefire), and actions are what we're getting (the political work of making a ceasefire happen, going on mostly behind closed doors)." https://yastreblyansky.blogspot.com/2024/03/joe-did-what-welcome-welcome-welcome.html https://yastreblyansky.blogspot.com/2024/03/word-and-deed.html
At the end of today's post I talk about how Biden began the process of stopping-or-conditioning military transfers to Israel on February 8; I've added a paragraph to make it clearer.
Its weird to me that complaints about Biden's actions focus so much on American complicity in Netenyahu's actions, rather then those actions. The question of what happens after that aid and military transfer stops doesn't exist, only that America is no longer complicit. Do things get better in Gaza? Does it force Israel to start thinking about what happens after they "destroy Hamas" (a piece of bullshit that rivals Trump's best work)? Who knows?
I believe I saw a headline on Friday saying that the Netanyahu government is now admitting they probably won't eradicate Hamas, which is probably why they're turning to Lebanon/Hezbollah.
Gotta set expectations. They were never gonna "eradicate Hamas" (I always quote Bibi's words since they were bullshit when he said it) without eradicating either the leadership and funding that enabled the cannon fodder on the ground, or eradicating Gaza itself. Either one is probably out of their reach, so they are just kicking the bloody can down the road,
Wish they'd done it when I told them that, on October 10 if memory serves.
Once again, in polling done on October 6, 67 percent of Gazans said they had no trust or little trust in Hamas. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/03/podcasts/transcript-ezra-klein-interviews-amaney-jamal.html
What Israel has achieved politically, by killing 32,000 people, mostly women and children, destroying practically all of the Strip's infrastructure and medical care, and subjecting the entire population to starvation, is to turn that around completely: a couple of weeks ago, another poll was conducted:
"According to the poll, only seven percent of Gazans blamed Hamas for their suffering. Seventy-one percent of all Palestinians supported Hamas’s decision to attack Israel on October 7 — up 14 points among Gazans and down 11 points among West Bank Palestinians compared to three months ago. Fifty-nine percent of all Palestinians thought Hamas should rule Gaza, and 70 percent were satisfied with the role Hamas has played during the war. https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2024/03/22/poll-hamas-remains-popular-among-palestinians/
Netanyahu and IDF have made Hamas, five months ago a despised theocratic oppressor, into a genuinely popular political force.
That's pretty interesting.
"Do things get better in Gaza?" Indeed they might well get worse. I think Biden and Obama had to deal with questions like that over Saudi Arabia's war on Yemen, and concluded, rightly or wrongly, that being in the loop gave them some leverage for trying to protect civilians. Things certainly did become worse in Yemen after Trump became president. (He didn't stop arms deliveries though, he just took the brakes off altogether.)
The important question there is "Do things get better in Gaza." The answer is uncontroversially yes. Less slaughter > more slaughter, I think we can agree. Let's get that done and then move on to the rest of it.
Certainly not less slaughter. They don't really need US weapons for that. Israel has an enormous weapons industry for export and for its own domestic use https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Defense_industry_of_Israel and is working on plans to enormously expand it as other countries (e.g.Canada) stop selling to them https://www.timesofisrael.com/is-pm-serious-about-expanding-local-arms-production-reducing-dependence-on-imports/
I'd like to see the chain of reasoning that starts with "Biden ends military aid support to Israel" and ends with "less slaughter". I suspect there are a few assumptions in there that may not pan out. I completely agree with the abhorrence with being complicit in Bibi's Big Adventure, but I don't see the path between your start and end, and I have my own assumptions that lead to Israel saying "fuck it, let's do it live" and pulling out all the stops to a final solution to their Palestinian problem, to coin a phrase. Maybe I'm as wrong as I think you are, and they're not that dumb and Netenyahu's not that desperate.