So, can this peace deal get signed if Netenyahu refuses? And what motive would Netenyahu have to sign? Or is this some kimd of power play to "force" Netenyahu's government to collapse, so a new government could sign and presumably get whatever Biden has promised them in return? It all sounds like whatever is going on is not what is being…
So, can this peace deal get signed if Netenyahu refuses? And what motive would Netenyahu have to sign? Or is this some kimd of power play to "force" Netenyahu's government to collapse, so a new government could sign and presumably get whatever Biden has promised them in return? It all sounds like whatever is going on is not what is being presented, because what is being presented makes no sense given the players involved and their motives. And its pretty clear the people in Gaza are not players.
Lapid's promise is that he will bring his opposition party into government, preserving Netanyahu's majority when Ben-Gvir and Motrich quit (say until they schedule an election), if Netanyahu accepts the deal. That's the motive. Sorry, I thought I made it clear.
Obviously I think it would be preferable to get rid of him and assemble some less rightwing coalition, and Biden does too. I expect the Israeli politicians hate each other too much to allow one of them to replace Netanyahu. That will take an election.
I'm guessing it's Saudi, not US, that is making the most significant promises to Israel (mutual recognition, mutual defense agreements...). Saudi support, political and financial, for the Palestinians in Gaza and West Bank is the lemonade Biden has made out of the lemons of Kushner's "Abraham Accords" (this is the deal that was being negotiated in Doha until October 7, from which Hamas was being excluded, hence the massacres). Released Palestinian prisoners will take (hopefully be elected to) positions in the new Palestinian leadership which will take over Gaza in the rebuilding phase, and some as yet undefined West Bank territory.
Thanks. Obviously above my pay grade, because while I see the framework here, I can't imagine why or how any Israeli government would agree to this, based on their actions for what, the last 40 years. The plan is rational, but who in Israel is rational at this point?
One last thing: The Israeli Supreme Court should quite soon be ruling on the traditional draft exemption for ultra-Orthodox men. There’s little doubt but that they will shut it down and the black-hats will have to join the army. https://www.timesofisrael.com/high-courts-patience-with-haredi-draft-evasion-snaps-in-highly-charged-hearing/ Netanyahu had been able to protect them—it was part of his deal with the national religious parties—but he can’t any more; they’ve said they will bring the government down over this issue regardless of how Netanyahu conducts the war.
At that point, Israel won’t have a government. It will have Netanyahu totally focused on staying in office. He will definitely take Lapid’s offer.
Not 40 years, more like 28. The Oslo agreements were signed in 1993 and 1995. For that matter, it was just 19 years ago, 2005 that the rightwing Sharon government kicked all the Jewish settlers out of Gaza and arranged for Gaza to have self-government, a move that pleased US and enraged the settler movement. It didn’t work out in the long run, of course, because Sharon’s and Netanyahu’s factions couldn’t stop encouraging Hamas, but that’s not the point.
The point is that the situation can change very fast.
So, can this peace deal get signed if Netenyahu refuses? And what motive would Netenyahu have to sign? Or is this some kimd of power play to "force" Netenyahu's government to collapse, so a new government could sign and presumably get whatever Biden has promised them in return? It all sounds like whatever is going on is not what is being presented, because what is being presented makes no sense given the players involved and their motives. And its pretty clear the people in Gaza are not players.
Lapid's promise is that he will bring his opposition party into government, preserving Netanyahu's majority when Ben-Gvir and Motrich quit (say until they schedule an election), if Netanyahu accepts the deal. That's the motive. Sorry, I thought I made it clear.
Obviously I think it would be preferable to get rid of him and assemble some less rightwing coalition, and Biden does too. I expect the Israeli politicians hate each other too much to allow one of them to replace Netanyahu. That will take an election.
I'm guessing it's Saudi, not US, that is making the most significant promises to Israel (mutual recognition, mutual defense agreements...). Saudi support, political and financial, for the Palestinians in Gaza and West Bank is the lemonade Biden has made out of the lemons of Kushner's "Abraham Accords" (this is the deal that was being negotiated in Doha until October 7, from which Hamas was being excluded, hence the massacres). Released Palestinian prisoners will take (hopefully be elected to) positions in the new Palestinian leadership which will take over Gaza in the rebuilding phase, and some as yet undefined West Bank territory.
Thanks. Obviously above my pay grade, because while I see the framework here, I can't imagine why or how any Israeli government would agree to this, based on their actions for what, the last 40 years. The plan is rational, but who in Israel is rational at this point?
One last thing: The Israeli Supreme Court should quite soon be ruling on the traditional draft exemption for ultra-Orthodox men. There’s little doubt but that they will shut it down and the black-hats will have to join the army. https://www.timesofisrael.com/high-courts-patience-with-haredi-draft-evasion-snaps-in-highly-charged-hearing/ Netanyahu had been able to protect them—it was part of his deal with the national religious parties—but he can’t any more; they’ve said they will bring the government down over this issue regardless of how Netanyahu conducts the war.
At that point, Israel won’t have a government. It will have Netanyahu totally focused on staying in office. He will definitely take Lapid’s offer.
Not 40 years, more like 28. The Oslo agreements were signed in 1993 and 1995. For that matter, it was just 19 years ago, 2005 that the rightwing Sharon government kicked all the Jewish settlers out of Gaza and arranged for Gaza to have self-government, a move that pleased US and enraged the settler movement. It didn’t work out in the long run, of course, because Sharon’s and Netanyahu’s factions couldn’t stop encouraging Hamas, but that’s not the point.
The point is that the situation can change very fast.
Like bankruptcy, slowly then all at once.